Why I believe the 4Runner line will die in 2023.

It's funny, that's my LEAST favorite thing about mine.

I'm with Thatbassguy. I'm very optimistic about the potential of the turbo 4cyl.

 

How many years will it take before it is considered reliable?

 

I hope it isn't like what happened to the taco, my 4 cylinder 09 taco was more enjoyable to drive than my 17 6 cylinder taco. I am not knowledgeable enough to say it was due to the motor switch yota did for the 3rd gen, but I feel like it is.

 

I'm most excited about the hybrid version and it sounds like we have a good chance at getting the Hybrid Max from the Crown.

The Hybrid Max pairs a 2.4-liter turbo with 2 electric motors (front and rear) and a 6-speed transmission.

Around 340 hp and 400ft/lbs torque

28mpg in the Crown. Likely less with a heavier 4Runner.

What sounds really cool is it's offroad potential having an electric motor front and rear. Toyota says the power distribution can be varied from 70:30 to 20:80, front to rear.

 

As I understand it, people didn't like the tune of the 3.5L and trans combo.

Many said all the power was top end and it lacked low end torque.

This combined with a strange shift pattern seemed to irk a lot of people.

I drove a 2nd gen for work. I've driven a 3rd gen, but only for a day. I didn't really understand what people were complaining about but maybe I needed more time with it.

 

In that case I'd miss the 1GR less, but I'd still miss it.

But let's be practical here, not hypothetical. The reality is that none of us will really know how reliable and durable the 4 cylinder turbo / turbo-hybrid is going to be. To me, that instantly diminishes the appeal of the 4Runner. We all know that the 1GR is one of the most bulletproof motors ever. We see the proof of that all over. Which gives us confidence in our rigs. A level of confidence we simply could never match in the 6th Gen powertrain until 10-20 years have gone by. And at which point, I'd wager, the consensus will be that nothing beat the 5th Gen for reliability and longevity.

For even the optimistic among us, do you really think the 6th Gen small-displacement turbo/hybrids will be cresting 200K and 300K as often as the 1GR? You don't really.

Now, that certainly doesn't mean the 4 cylinder turbo is dumb. Longevity is only one of many important factors. I'm just speaking for myself when I say that the proven longevity (and, yes, the character) of the 1GR was a major factor in my purchase -- and a major reason I love my 4R now.

 

Both of mine where manual trans, and you needed to get up to 3k rpms in the 3rd gen to move it.

The proven reliability is exactly why we got a 5th gen runner and didn't wait to see what happens next, I feel like I missed the last of the 2nd gen tacos and wasn't willing to miss it with the runner.

 

I guess it will take probably a decade and multiple 200K vehicles for most of us.

This is why the 4 cylinder turbo is a better option. It makes peak torque at much lower RPM's. I haven't liked the fake Atkinson engine from day 1.

 

I personally think the turbo 4 will be a 200,000 mile motor. The hybrid going even further. Toyota has been testing this motor for 5-7 years already and they don't strike me as a company that is content with making cars that have 125k - 150k mile life spans. Their standard is higher.

Whether it will go to 300,000, I don't know.

 

Fair point about not knowing the reliability of a new powertrain. One can expect it to be reliable, because Toyota engineers the heck out of things, but OTOH they also engineered the 3.0 V6 and made questionable decisions with the Tacoma.

Either way, I absolutely think 200k is a given. 200k is not a lot of miles for modern vehicles. I've said this before, but my 2007 Volvo with a turbo 2.5L has 232k and counting with zero issues with the original turbo. Many other owners are over 300k.

As for hybrid tech, Toyota pretty much invented it. Lots of high mileage Priuses around, they're even used as taxis in some places. 300k+ seems almost common for them.

Yes, only time will tell, but I don't think this will be the catastrophe people are predicting.

I am wondering how many 1GRs are actually over 300k though. I was actually looking for that info recently, and could not find many examples. Not saying they CAN'T do that, but perhaps most owners are simply not driving enough to accumulate that mileage. I looked on marketplace too, most high mileage ones are in the 200-250k range. I see more higher mileage Tahoe/Suburbans actually.

 

I don’t disagree. Getting more info on the longevity of these things is one of the reasons I posted my Poll. Not super scientific I guess, but it’s something.

 

The three Toyota dealership in my area don't have any T4R in stock.
There is a only new T4R on the lot but with miles already on it. Maybe Demo. Listed MSRP plus 3K markup.

Toyota using chip/part shortage to stop production - end 2022. Hence push markup prices up ?

 

That’s frustrating. It must be regional. There’s always stock on the lots of local dealers near me. Philadelphia region.

 

Yota's record with the Prius is exactly why we bought the Rav4 Prime, and I would think that you are seeing more high mileage Tahoe/Suburbans is because maybe they don't rust out as bad as the toyotas.

 

Could be. I notice the rockers and lower rear quarters are prone to rusting on the GMs, but not so much the frames. If I remember correctly when the GMT800 generation was introduced in the early 00s, the frames were fairly advanced. They we're among the first to use hydroformed rails, IIRC. I also think that larger SUVs are more likely to be road trip vehicles. I see a lot of high mileage Sequoias too.

 

Hybrid drivetrains are Toyota's bread and butter, and they are most definitely capable of making them reliable.

I’m not necessarily in love with the current engine itself. It’s fairly vanilla and uninspiring. But to me, the value is that it’s a known quantity. It’s reliable by itself, and also reliable in the 4runner system. And seems reliable in terms of it being used in a 4runner to do 4runner things. Only time can prove these things.

The 4runner may end up with a stellar engine, but knowing how that installation works driving through mud all day, or through choking dust, or fording streams past the axles…those things take time to find out.

And here’s another thing we wouldnt have…The huge amount of knowledge that has built up in forums like this over the course of two decades (counting the very similar 4th gen). That has massive value, and I’d argue is what will make this gen sought out far into the future.

That said, upward and onward. Progress is good, even if Toyota mistakes along the way.

 

Wonder how much the 6th Gen price will get jacked up compared to current model. my 2023 ORP with all its options etc is $50k. I imagine a similar ORP in 3years with a Hybrid engine might be getting close to $60k?

 

This is why I really don't care too much what they do with the 6th gen, or even IF there is a 6th gen. The cost will go up enough to price myself and a lot of other buyers out of the market.

 

what’s nice with runner is the real potential to be able to ride the wave to keep a nicer 4runner within reach. Trading an older good 4runner to newer wont hurt as much compared to other vehicles.

I’m too lazy and risk-averse to do that though. Unless a great offer drops into my lap, I’m going to keep mine for the duration.

 

I've just decided that I'm over car payments and that having an expensive vehicle does nothing but hurt my financial future. Even if I trade mine in, I'd probably still be looking at a 40k purchase price. No thanks.

 

Toyota isn't going to price the 4runner out of the market. It's going to cost more, but it will probably be on par with inflation.

Why would they jack up the price to the point that their customers can't afford their products?

 

When I sold my 2004 Jeep Rubicon and 2013 Toyota Tacoma 4x4 in 2019 to purchase the current 4R OR, I realized that would be my first and last $40k vehicle purchase. $39k + TTL. This one will have to be it.

 

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The current model has gone up noticeably over the past few years with really no added value to consumers. Even that price increase alone is probably enough to change some people's minds about purchasing one. Add another 10 grand on top of that, there's a lot of people that maybe will pay 40 something for a 4Runner, but 50 something is a non-starter.

Not to mention that inflation is fast outpacing people's income growth, so even if it just increases with inflation, that's enough.

 

Obviously not, if people keep paying over MSRP. You can also thank them for letting Toyota know they weren't charging enough. Really, I'd say the market drove the price up.

They're already paying $50K+.

Where did you hear that the price is going up $10K?

 

Just throwing a number out there, I didn't see anything on price. I really don't think that will be too far off though, the Sequoia went up almost 10k in base price.

I actually wouldn't be surprised if it was more, the way car prices keep going up.

 

I find the hatred of turbos rather humorous, because nobody seems to have any problem putting them on their own vehicles (5vz, 3rz, 3vz, 22re). Like "I want the performance from a 4wd, but I also want durability, but I want it out of a fuel efficient engine". Your not going to get all 3 of those. A hard truth for people here is there is nothing that Toyota could do to increase one of those without negatively impacting another, even before you consider cost.

There are so many threads on this forum of new owners asking if the fuel economy is really this bad, and normally the answer is yes. Even if gas is cheap where you live, it might not be that way forever. And currently in many places it is significantly more expensive. If the price of gasoline inevitably goes up, it's just simple logic that Toyota cant keep selling a NA vehicle that gets 16 MPG. Something has to give. And if Toyota doesn't change things, what might give are peoples desire or ability to afford to operate one.

And I'll get on my high horse and say I've never been happy with how large the 5th gen 4runner is. It's huge compared to my 3rd gen. If Toyota hadn't increased the size so much maybe it would be possible to achieve power, reliability, and fuel economy without advanced technology. If you like the large size then you'll have to accept that more technology will be needed under the hood to keep the vehicle on sale. I'll just hold onto my 4 cylinder 3rd gen and be content with 20 mpg city.

Anyone arguing that EVs are worse for the environment because of lithium or cobalt mining fails to appreciate the impact of fossil fuels. Maybe it's because fossil fuels have been normalized, but we've spent 30 years in the sandbox because we wanted their oil. We went to war for oil producing countries, and overlook such atrocities like killing journalists and hacking their bodies into pieces. We've had catastrophic oil spills that have devastated wild life. And the act of using it as intended pollutes the air we breath and the atmosphere we need so Earth doesn't become a runaway greenhouse affect like Venus.

If your going to argue against EV (I do hate a lot about them too), you have to argue that fossil fuel production is somehow better. Neither are good, but at least one doesn't get energy from a finite resource. Everything sucks, our 1st world modern life depends on economic and environmental exploitation, the question is which one can we get away with for longer? There is no ideal solution with transportation. I like ICE, but even without climate change we would still have to worry about how to replace them. Climate change raises the stakes a bit

 

I expect the market to be cooling down with interest rates going up. Also, a $10K jump on a vehicle that already costs significantly more doesn't really translate to a $10K hike on 4Runner prices.

But, I suppose Toyota executives could all just wake up one day and decide they don't want to sell any 6th gens.

 

Agreed about the turbo stuff. And, still not worried about the incoming engine having reliability issues.

I'd never say that EV's are worse for the environment than ICE vehicles. But, they're certainly not a big enough improvement to be forced on us. And, they still have shortcomings that I don't see them overcoming anytime soon. Batteries are the biggest issue. Electric motors are fantastic! (Even if they're never going to sound like an ICE. )

 

I generally like to think in these terms too. The 4runner has a really good chance at being serviceable and useful for a very long time.

As a high utility, reliable vehicle, the only thing I think could compare is my 2006 Sienna. Bought it new and finally sold it to help fund my 4runner. That thing was solid, and almost completely trouble free in the 16 years I had it. In the end I was even looking to lift it, but thought better of it lol.