6th gen Speculation Thread

Right. Just like the Tundra. It makes sense for a light duty truck. Toyota's leaf springs were junk anyway.

The post I was replying to seemed to suggest they were going to an independent rear suspension.

 

It's not known whether 4Runner production will be exclusively in Mexico or not. Could be Tahara and Mexico. But it looks likely production will not exclusively be in Tahara anymore.

It makes sense when you think about it. Toyota only sells the 4Runner in North America so instead of shipping complete vehicles across the Pacific from Japan, it's probably much cheaper to ship all the parts to Mex for assembly and distribution.......especially since there will surely be parts sharing with other vehicles using the TNGA-F platform.

 

Yeah if they are made in Mexico should work out well, like the Ford I had that had some illegal drugs stashed behind the stereo, and my buddy's who had a few missing parts upon arrival. Combine that with stellar build quality I am sure it will be a big hit for warranty work.

 

If I am not mistaken, the Tundra ditched the live rear axle. I did not read it that closely, but the Taco seems to track. Ditto the 6G being made in Mexico.

 

That's what the credible information points to at the moment. Yes, the Tacoma is 920B.

Something I've been thinking about.......we don't know Tahara's schedule and if Toyota is able to expedite their 6th gen development at all, perhaps the 6th gen could come out of Tahara in Aug 2023 as a 2024 Model Year. Then the Guanajuato Plant would start production in January 2024 to supplement demand. This way Toyota doesn't have to continue the 5th gen into the 2024 model year.

I don't have any evidence for this particular scenario and there is literally nothing out there that points to this happening at the moment, but it was a thought that popped into my head. All credible speculation at the moment still points to the first run of the 6th gen happening at the Guanajuato Plant in January 2024......which means at 2024 1/2 6th gen 4Runner at the earliest.

 

I'm not worried. It's more about how Toyota manages their plants rather than where the vehicle is coming from geographically.

Toyota's Tijuana Plant has been pumping out Tacoma's for a while now and has won awards for quality.

 

No, they went to a coil spring suspension like the 4Runner has.

 

You think we'll see the savings in the shipping cost or Toyota will see the profits? Probably won't be able to get into a 6th gen for under $50k. Don't know whos buying these new gen Toyotas at Lexus prices but it ain't me.

 

I don't see Toyota pricing themselves out of the market. I would expect prices to remain similar to where they are now, maybe adjusted for inflation. With the economy going in the shitter, it just doesn't seem like a good time to gouge people.

If course, I could be wrong. But, I really don't see the benefit to Toyota if nobody buys them.

One thing I could see is a wider range of prices. Maybe they'll offer something similar to the SR trim on the Tacomas to keep it affordable, while raising prices of the higher end trims.

I could definitely see the PRO going up significantly, since people continue to pay over MSRP for them.

And, if prices all around do go up a lot, we can thank everyone who went out and paid MSRP + "market adjustments" for showing Toyota that they weren't charging enough.

 

Yeah the recession will just squeeze out those guys and gals that were just able to think about affording one.

Auto companies and dealers are keeping as close to zero inventory as they can on the lot also to keep demand and hence prices up. Some friends who sell GM cars here are being told this will remain even as parts shortages ease (if they do).

I would guess once the recession gets bad enough you will see used prices coming down as people sell them as they lose their jobs (sadly)

I just learned of a bunch of layoffs of engineers at my place coming this summer in the USA and Europe. The meetings remind me of 2009/2010. Your heart can’t help but go out to these folks especially with inflation.

 

Transportation costs (fuel specifically, but not exclusively) are 50%+ higher than they were a year ago. Any shipping cost savings they see as a result of this change could mean delivery processing/handling fee won't increase, versus it looking like them taking the profits.

That's an interesting point. My first thought was "no way that's true!" but thinking about other COVID-era changes that became permanent (working from home, changes in the service model at restaurants, etc) you might be right. If I'm a dealership and circumstances have proven I don't need 80 cars on my lot all the time I can have the same or higher revenue with lower costs, translating to higher profits. I hope this isn't one of those changes that 'sticks'.

 

Crazy times for sure. I live in metro Detroit and most qualify for employee discounts on domestic name plates. Another interesting change is many dealers are not offering those discounts to employees or family. They still exist just less so.

 

I heard another update that the production lines in Mexico are full. So production will stay in Japan.

 

Interesting! I'll have to poke around a little to get the new scoop.

Thanks for the update!

 

You're welcome!

 

I am seeing prices come down on ORs and SR5s. At least out in PA and and a little in MI. Maybe the interests rates and prices finally killed it. I mean come who doesn’t want to pay 4.75 percent on 40k for those that don’t have cash. Got love interest rates.

 

Just a couple days ago I saw a TV ad from a local dealer (don't remember the manufacturer) advertising 2.99% interest rate (on select models of course) on new vehicles. I hadn't seen an ad from dealers trying to sell an interest rate for decades. And it reminded me of seeing an ad back in 1980/81 from a local dealer actually advertising a 9.9% interest rate. Hope that's not where we are heading.

In any case, there's probably more than a few people wanting a 5th GEN 4R who are glad they purchased when they did, including myself.

 

I poked around a bit in the channels I know and couldn't find anything about this.

Do you mind sharing where you heard this?

 

Odd about not seeing low interest rate ads for decades? Low rate deals are very common and have been forever. Even now, in today's high interest rate environment where the average 30-year mortgage rate is over 6%, Subaru is offering 2.9% on all its models. 2.9% was a decent rate even two years ago when rates generally were at their lowest. I got my 4Runner at 2.5% in June 2020 and my wife got her Passport at 2.9% in August 2021.

Toyota is offering 4.49% on several models now -- not a great rate but not obscene either.

In any case, it's always amazed me how many car buyers ignore rate and then get fleeced by the dealer, which gets a kickback on the rate and so uses it as a way to offset the "good" price they are giving you on the car or on your trade. People need to do the math and total the true cost of the transaction, adding every monthly payment they'd make plus cash down plus the actual market value of their trade (what they would get if they sold it themselves). THAT's how to determine if you're getting a decent deal.

 

On you tube truck king channel he did a collab with automotive press. It’s just speculation. But it makes sense as the Mexico plants are flat out with Tacoma production. Texas plants are full with tundra production.

 

I was worried it might be connected with Automotive Press in some way.

That guy has been wrong so many times with his predictions. I feel like his channel (and most others that do these sorts of predictions) just circulate the same myths that one of them made up in the first place. He was saying for the longest time that the 6th gen was coming this year as a 2023 model until it was painfully obvious it wasn't going to happen.......then he had to change his tune. I'm surprised his YouTube channel didn't die after that to be honest.

Bottom line, I don't trust his information.

 

I agree but the production lines being full does make sense. Unless they somehow can expand and upgrade. I bet we won’t see the 6th gen till 2025 MY.

 

The Guanajuato Plant is pretty new (opened in 2019) and it's currently only making Tacoma's.

I would find it hard to believe that Toyota built a brand new plant and already sized themselves out of it.

But you never know......demand has been pretty crazy lately. That's beginning to subside though.

 

The front end looks really long, right?

Also, it looks like a 2-door to me. Not enough room for a 4-door between the windshield and rear wheel well.

I'm calling 2-door concept vehicle......something to replace the FJ and compete with the Bronco??

 

I think that’s the new 4Runner and it’s going to look like a smaller Sequoia.

 

Wow that would be a long hood and it seems like a loss of cargo space to me. I guess we will see

 

Please let it be a 2 door 4runner concept!

I'm hoping they don't bring back the FJC. Bring the 4Runner back to its roots instead!

Or, bring us a version of the 70 series LC and get rid of the 4Runner also.