In 20 years, will the 5th Gen be considered a “Classic”

https://www.iseecars.com/longest-lasting-cars-study#v=2016
~5% of 4Runners make it past 200k miles, so about 100,000 out of the 2 million built. Cut that by half in 20 years as the early 5th gens are already in the 150k range, so about 50,000 on the road.

That's if the 12 states don't follow through with their announcements to ban new gasoline-powered vehicles in 2035. If they do, gas pumps will be harder to find in 20 years.

In 20 years, typical SUV prices will probably in the $240k range. If you manage to hold onto your 5th gen for that long, you can probably sell it for $30k lol.

 

Its a going to be Hydrogen. They're already using it in California.

 

But if they catch on fire like battery powered cars do?

 

Won’t be a classic.

the ineos granedier will become a classic first.

 

Your comments is why I am about to purchase a 2024 4Runner.

 

I had the life experience of driving in a Cord once or twice

 

That’s great. It’s a small club. That gear shift is something else, isn’t it?



Welcome to the board, by the way.

 

New. Sales.. existing cars will still be on the road. The average age of the US car fleet is something like 12 years old now. Average means half of all cars are younger and half are older. So call it at least 20-25 years before all those pre-2035 cars dwindle down to just preserved classics. That says there will still be significant demand for gas in”ban”states through something like 2060.

Now there may be other incentives or events that push people to migrate to EV faster but I think it’s too early to tell.

 

Your old man’s ideas on proportions are right. I also accept the distinction between classics and antiques. Good proportions make or break a vehicle in terms of how desirable they are. The eye just naturally interprets the designs as “right” and satisfying to look at. It’s the proportions that make your eyes return to it. It makes owners look back towards to the car after parking it. Some vehicles have perfect proportions, which you know because it will usually cause an involuntary gasp upon first seeing it.

It seems like a lot modern designs just show a hatred towards good visual proportions. So anything approaching good can stand out.

Good proportions can be an attribute of some fairly mundane cars. My old 1999 Honda accord…very plain, but it had good proportions. Good proportions also naturally result in good balance, ride, and road dynamics. Personally, I view the accord as a “simple” classic.

To my eye, the 4runner also has good proportions, maybe not the perfect ratios, but close. The proportions also result in benefits to how the vehicle rides and handles. I felt it on the first drive…it feels good on the road. It’s a plain vehicle in its standard form, with some arguably ugly cosmetic details, but it has good proportions (or at least is fairly close to ideal proportions).

Yeah, I think mine is a classic. And it’s been like that since new

 

I saw a topless 1st gen Bronco a couple days ago, probably mid-70s. It was a perfectly rectangular box, but it still looked pretty tough.

 

I think if the new turbo-based powertrains end up being far less reliable/long-lasting, the 5th gens will become more sought after since they'll be seen as the last truly good ones.

Sadly, I expect that to be the case with the new engines. Not just the Tundra turbos that got recalled -- that's a separate issue. It's the overall longevity of even the non-affected ones that I think will disappoint a lot of Toyota fans.

 

I never got to drive it, but I have a friend who did a frame off restoration of his 1931 L-29...and what a beautiful car

he sold it on BAT
https://bringatrailer.com/listing/1931-cord-l-29-cabriolet/

they don't make em like this anymore, but its all relative...

compare the 2024 4Runner with other current production vehicles of similar price...
I think the 5th gen 4Runner is likely the last best quality we will get...

 

That means by 2047 (23 years from now) half the cars in the "ban" states won't use gasoline. Does that mean half the gas pumps will disappear by 2047? Maybe, maybe more than half. There are certain capital investments needed to keep stations running, underground tanks to replace, etc. Station owners may be unwilling to make those investments if demand is observed to be dwindling.

 

Could be. Who knows. I’ll be in my 70s by then and I don’t live in CA so I’m not gonna panic. People who maintain classics will find ways to get gas, just like folks who own classic pre 1970 cars today still keep them on the road even though the last leaded gas pumps disappeared when I was in high school….

 

I went and read some more on it. The zero emissions mandate includes plug in hybrids in the definition of “electric” so there will potentially be some gas engines made even for CA after 2035.

still a long way off and we don’t know how the industry will go… a lot probably dependent on consumer uptake rates and how quickly they can solve the charging infrastructure problem.

 

The 1st gens are already classics and some are even going for $30,000. 20yrs down the road these will be even more in excellent condition. 5th gen however, will probably hold it's value 20yrs later but depends on how good the turbos will be, I guess. being classics in general maybe not. However, I think the '24s will be the iconic ones since they will be the LAST v6 produced 4 Runners. There is always some kind of association that comes with products that are the first and last ones to build or produce that people love to collect. So if you have a '24 keep those suckers in excellent condition and i'm sure some collector will buy it near what you paid for it yrs 20 yrs from now.