When do you typically sell?

I know many of you are ‘drive into the dirt’ people, and others feel like there’s a best time to sell by. What is that point for you?

I personally think the 5-7 year mark is the sweet spot. My rationale…

Scenario 1: Truck kept for 5 years. auto trader average for a 2018 off-road 4x4 with 75k is mid 30s range. Sell and replace with new similar truck, 48k, loss of 13k.

Scenario 2: Truck kept for 10 years. Assuming you don’t have any major issues during the 10 years, current sale prices for a similarly equipped 2013 with 150k is 18-20. you’d loose 15k in value compared to if you sold at 5 years.

Scenario 3: Truck kept 15 years. Truck is probably requiring replacement of some components, leak fix, ac, etc.. Prices are a wider range when older, but a 2008 with 225k we’ll say average of 10k. Add 2-4k in repairs during this time period. A loss of 12-14k during this period.

Rough math/estimates and could be different in your area. Obviously pros and cons to both, but basically you could have repeated scenario 1, driving a new truck every 5 years, and come out basically in the same position financially - if that’s your thing. This also probably only works with vehicles like 4R with high resale.

 

Scenario 1: approx cost selling at 35k with 13k loss after 5 years is 2.6k/yr, but that assumes a purchase price of 43k.

Scenario 2: approx cost selling at 18-20k with 23-25k loss after 10 years is 2.3-2.5k/yr, but that assumes a purchase price of 43k

Scenario 3: approx cost selling at 12-14k (with repairs) with 29-31k loss after 15 years is 1.93-2.06k/yr, but that assumes a purchase price of 43k

Seems to me like the longer you hold onto it, the better bang for buck. Also remember inflation - at 2k/yr average for scenario 3, after 15 years it may have just paid for itself

 

I am 61 and have driven three vehicles into the dirt. I hope my two year old 4R gets driven into the dirt before I do!

 

I won’t ever sell it. Not that I’ll never get a new car/truck but the 4R will stay with me as long as I’m alive.
This only thing that will get me away from it is if I’m involved in an accident.

 

When needs/wants change. In my case, a Tundra makes more sense for towing than the Runner, at least here in CO. And I couldn't convince Mrs. Catus to trade her Tuscon for a 4Runner. I do miss the Runner at times, but I'm normally not one of those "I'll be buried before I sell it" types. Not so much with my FJ-40. I'm too emotionally attached to that little sweetheart.

 

Take it from someone who's basically buried themselves in a car note for half their life - it's a waste of money to buy the newest, shiniest shit out there. Cars are typically the worst financial investment you can make.

I bought my 4runner to last me until the wheels fall off so I can still sell it for a decent amount of money. The fact they hold their value is a plus. I bought it for the reliability so I don't have to sell it when it wears out too early

Edit: assuming I last longer than it does with good, regular Mx

 

I don't disagree. My line of thinking was based on a 5 year loan. Once you get ahead it's really not that much of a burden. For example, if you paid off in 5 years and sold, your next note would be 13K if you bought a new one at 48k. That's mid 2s as a payment, which i wouldn't consider buried. I know a lot of people are adverse to car payments, but the math works out the same or better either way.

There's also efficiency differences. I know what makes the 4.0 special is it's simplicity and reliability, but the next gen power plant is advertised (unproven) to get a 10mpg combined bump. That could be a 1K a year in fuel savings to drive 15K miles. Making a 250 payment 166 when you take fuel savings into account, or 8K for the next 5 year cost of ownership vs 15 in depreciation.

 

I think your math is slightly off/inconsistent assuming 48 is the constant.
S1 Selling 35K is 13k (48K), or 2.6.yr
S2 Selling 18-20k is 28-30K loss (48K) or 2.8-3k/yr.
S3 Selling 12-14k is 34-36k loss (48K) or 2.26k/yr-2.4k/yr

You're correct that S3 is slightly less, but that's assuming no major repairs (or rust issues), and also isn't taking efficiency gains into account in a 10-15 year newer vehicle, which could be significant.

 

Yeah, I don't disagree with that logic.

My "buried in car notes" comment should probably have some context. Being younger, dumber, and making less money, I couldn't ever afford a new car so they were always used. I would always try to get something as "least used" as possible and still within budget but since I wasn't buying something that holds value well like a 4runner, what I paid off on the loans typically kept up with depreciation but not much more so when it was paid off I wasn't sitting on something with value.

 

Yeah, i mixed and matched my math between 43k and 48k. Don't drink and math.

I see now you had said 48k but I had 43k in my head. I forget how expensive these things are now. I think I only paid around 40k for mine when new.

 

Rule #1. A vehicle is an asset, not an investment.
Rule #2. With respect to retirement, it doesn’t matter how much you save, it matters how long.
Rule #3. Live life like there’s no tomorrow. As the saying goes, “Life is short. Eat dessert first.”

 

Ditto what Catus said above. When needs change. And, same as him, that will probably never apply to our sweet little 1979 FJ-40. It’s our baby. Our Runners are our every day work horses.

Also, we consider the Runners’ reliability and lack of downtime sitting in the shop broken or needing repairs to be an item of monetary $ value. Neither of them have had a single warranty claim and have never been down for an unscheduled maintenance occurrence. And we drive a lot of miles. Time is money and both our Runners keep that ledger account full via their excellent reliability and non-existent (so far) unexpected downtime. It’s difficult to quantify that as a metric for use in the “when to trade it” equation, but it’s a real life financial benefit to owning a Runner.

 

Someone once told me that old Cruisers should never be sold, only will'd...

 

I usually try to sell before one the big services a vehicle needs. We have a few ~100k opportunity's to sell before you have to shell out for plugs, pump, trans, tires, breaks, that can cost a few thousand. I will likely not sell my 4R before 300k if ever, but things can change and those ~100k markers have done well for me.


My Acura I gave to my neglectful GF at 265k, she killed it just at 300k.

 

I’ve kept my Toyota’s and Honda’s 20+ years and nearly 300k miles. That’s my benchmark.

Barring an idiot running a red light, my 5th gen will probably outlive me.

 

If you offer me more than what I paid for for my 4Runner, I will sell it to you today! Such arbitrage opportunities didn't exist in the past, but now seem possible.
Lacking that, I don't see me selling this vehicle. Its been my dream vehicle for a while now (unless the 300 lands stateside) and now that I have it, I don't want anything else.
I consider the 5th gen timeless. Like the 1960s Mustang, it is beautiful today and it will be so 50 years from now.

 

With a Pro, I’ll usually sell it between 2-3 years, right before the factory warranty runs out. You can take minimal depreciation or even break even.

 

No kidding!!!! We have 3 grown sons and there's always debate about "who gets Dad's FJ-40" - so that's 100% true in this family.

 

What cars are we talking about? Only 4Runners? We used to have Land Rovers. I wouldn’t own one beyond the term of the extended warranty. I have a Volkswagen Thing. That car can be perpetually renewed. I’ll keep it forever. And it’s appreciating in value.

 

I wanted a 4Runner for the last 5 years, always came up with a reason not to buy, too expensive, poor gas mileage, to this, too that. Found out on 4/17/2023 I had cancer and needed surgery. Got home from the hospital ordered the exact trim and color over the phone, had my financial advisor wire transfer the money to the stealership. Had them bring it to my home by car hauler. Moral of the story, life is so fragile, you could be gone tomorrow and screwed yourself out of the pleasure of owning a 4Runner. There is no tomorrow, kiss your kids/grandkids, buy a 4Runner, live life like you are dying!

 

I sell whenever I see something else I want.

Had a bunch of used cars at first since I was a poor college kid. But then.

Chevy Colorado - 3 years.
Chevy Trailblazer SS for the wife. I liked it so much sold the Colorado and bought
Trailblazer Trailblazer SS Supercharged etc

2 1/2 years later we wanted to buy a house
Sold both Trailblazers and got
Camry and Tundra

1 year later sold the Camry bought a Highlander

Actually kept the Highlander for 5 years.

Sold Tundra bought new Tundra.

Sold Highlander got 4Runner

Kept 4 runner for 3 years sold and bought RX350L


In the middle of all that bought a boat. Sold it in 18 months bought a bigger boat. Maybe looking for a 250 and a bigger boat now 9 months later.

So I guess my sweet spot is less than 5 years.

 

The wife and I joke wondering which of our 4Rs will last the longest…….lol

 

Hope for the best for you.
No cancer here….yet…..runs in the family though. I’m 68 and our 2022 4R just might be my last new vehicle so the wife and I actually agreed to buy a nice one and not pinch pennies….bought a SxS too….Still love my old 4R and PU. I will be buried with them..

 

Prayers all is ok with you Gary!

I have always kept cars a long time usually push for 20 years plus but I have a few cars and am single with no kids. I bought my new 21 ORP after getting rid of an Explorer I was very sentimental over but poured too much money trying to fix oil and trans leaks.

I saw my Dad aging and he and I had not fished with him in a few years since my tow vehicle was always in the shop. With Covid I said screw it and ordered a new 4R over the phone and waited six months.

Earlier this year I found I out had a hip issue when I thought I had a simple hernia. Fast forward to 2023 my 21 ORP has less than 1k miles. So yes be thankful for each day things can change quickly.

I have always loved cars and keeping them in shape and saving money. But as I hit 50, have some health issues and no kids or wife my perspective changed quickly.

 

I have allowed my wants to speak louder than my needs. Traded my 96 4Runner for a Yukon at 160k miles when the service needs were piling up. Hated the Yukon, traded for a 2010 Tacoma (would have gone for a new 4Runner, but wanted manual transmission). Drove the Tacoma for 8 years, traded for a 2018 Tacoma, same color (MGM) only drove it 4 years when I succumbed to Toyota practically begging for clean used Tacoma. They offered me a trade up for a 2022 4Runner (also MGM) that was too good to pass up. I got $3k more in trade for the 2018 Tacoma than I paid for it having driven it 30k miles. Cost me about $4k plus the trade to step back into a 4Runner. I have visions of driving this for 8-10 years, but, I probably won't get to 150k miles in that time as I don't drive all that much anymore.

BTW, wish I had kept the 96 4Runner, it was manual transmission, got great mileage, and was a color called Anthracite something - closest to MGM as was available in 1996.

 

I feel you. We all have that one we let slip away. I would i would've kept my 86 mitsubishi starion instead of trading it for a POS trans am. I cry and beat myself daily. But that's a different oprah show. Lol.

 

I said the same thing about my FJ until I had to replace the windshield. After spending 2k to repair it. My feelings was changed and I traded it for the 4runner. Hopefully the 4runner windshield will not be as complexed and cheaper to replace.

 

why did you have to change the windshield? Cracked or something else?
I’ve had cracked windshields more than once that had to be replaced before (not on the 4R) but I have glass coverage so didn’t have to pay a single $

 

Holy crap the FJ Cruiser windshield cost you $2,000 to replace? I have some chips but thankfully haven’t had to replace it.

 

The small pebble made a hole and spread out like a spider web. It was on the driver's side. Would not have passed inspection. Insurance did not cover the damage since I didn't have glass coverage. Now I have the coverage since that happened. Replacing the FJ windshield is costly because of the labor and parts that has to be replaced. Got rid so I don't have to go through that again.