Effect of 6th Gen on 5th Gen Value

In the year 2023, the S&P returned 23%. Probably a result of the MAG-7 and AI accelerating profits. Real inflation is about 14% now as the CPI report by the feds is as fake as a 3 dollar bill. In fact inflation is getting worse and the 2 year treasury yield just hit 5% again. Yield curve has been inverted for a year now. Yikes !!

 

He’s referring to the increase in the S&P500 for last year. I think it was actually over 24%.

And he’s right, invest your money there if you’re expecting a return. Not in a Toyota.

 

I don't expect appreciation in the future but Carvana is offering me $700 more than I payed for my 2019 (now with 24K miles) new 5 years ago. I've never seen anything like that in my 45 years of car ownership.

I think that has more to do with the covid effect, shortage of quality used cars and inflation/interest rates than anything 6th gen but it did bump $1200 in the week following release.

 

With over 1,000,000 5th gen 4Runners sold in the U.S., it's not likely to be a "collector" truck anytime soon. We think these trucks are special... they're not.

So yes - the introduction of the 6th gen WILL negatively impact the value of the 5th gen... just as has happened to every mass-produced vehicle before it. This isn't an Aston Martin's last manual gear box, Porsche's last air-cooled engine or even the last full-size V8 Land Cruiser. It's more like, and it hurts to make the comparison, the latest version of the Mustang. It's just the next of more generations to come. We now drive the next to the newest generation... and it just took a bit of a hit.

BUT, and it's a big but - 4Runners have always been at the absolute top of the resale charts. We're going to be okay.

 

In our favor is that we'll have the last of the old guard Toyotas before everything went turbo and turbo/hybrid.

Not in our favor is that there are a helluva lot more 5th gen 4Runners in the wild than, say, FJ Cruisers and 200 series Land Cruisers, so I don't think we'll hold value quite as well as they did.

That being said, I think a 5th gen with solid maintenance records will hold value extremely well up to 200,000 miles and you can be a smug prick when you list it for sale. At least I will be if I ever sell mine.

This could also have even more upside if the 4th gen Tacoma and 6th gen 4Runner siblings stumble out of the quality control gate like the third gen Tundra did. I don't think the verdict is in on the 4th gen Tacoma just yet, but TFL snapping the front axle on theirs while spinning tires in the snow for all of YouTube to see isn't quite the splash Toyota was hoping for.

 

I don't disagree that a mint 4Runner will be great to have. I think it'll be like a '66 Mustang. Ford sold so damn many of the gen 1 Mustangs, that, unless it's a Shelby, they're pretty cheap.

I have a restored 4wd 1984 Pickup with 61,000 (documented) miles. It's damn cool but I know it's not bringing split window 'vette money at Barrett Jackson's.

 

Regarding collectibility say 30 years from now, what none of knows is what the availability of gasoline will look like or future policies that could render today's ice vehicles less desirable.

 

The 3rd gen Tacomas are actually going up in value according to the guys on tacomaworld (they’re saying their offers of buy backs from carmax and stealerships have gone up)

 

Oooh…but think of all of the e-conversions that’ll be available. A silent 1000 hp 5th gen would be pretty sweet. ;-)

 

That's...just how inflation works? A dollar in 2019 is not the same as a dollar in 2024, 5 years later. By official numbers, the dollar lost ~23% of its value in those 5 years, so your 4Runner lost about 21-23% of its actual inflation adjusted value over that period of time.

Don't take my word for it

https://www.bls.gov/data/inflation_calculator.htm

 

Which is why I said in the post you quoted I think current value has more to do with market factors and inflation than anything 6th gen related.

It's also true that I've never had a vehicle worth what it was new in current dollars 5 years later under any circumstances until now.

 

It can be both inflation related and the discontinuation factor.

I for example was on the fence until I saw the 4th gen Taco and realized how drastic the change was going to be so I went out and bought my first new Toyota in years, last year.

 

Either sell it to me, or stop rubbing it in!

 

I tend to keep daily drivers like this for 5 years or so, which with my driving is about 90K. The 4runner's great resale is linked to that reputation for reliability and that means I can still get a big chunk of my money back. Worked like a charm when I traded my '19 for my '23. I was blown away by how much I got for it.

 

I pretty much do the opposite. I buy quality, reliable vehicles and drive them for 12+ years. I think I've told this story on here before - when I bought my 2023 Limited I traded my 2010 Tacoma TRD Sport Dbl Cab to my son for a 2015 Chevy Cruze that was starting to have electrical issues - straight up trade. I traded the Cruze in when I bought the 4Runner. I knew I was giving my son some money with the trade - but I didn't care - I wanted him to have the truck which was still in great shape a running like new with about 145K miles. Unfortunately about 6 months later he hit a large deer and totaled the Tacoma. Insurance company gave him $19K for a 13 year old truck that I paid less than $26K for in 2010. I about had a stroke. The dealer I bought my Limited from gave me $10,600 for the Cruz - which was only slightly less than what I thought I could sell it for quickly. My son took the insurance money and bought a brand new 2023 Honda Civic Sport - really a much better vehicle for he and his wife. I still tell him sometimes that I own ~$8,000 of that Civic - he just smiles at me.

 

Lets be honest, 4Runner will never be collectible - they are too numerous and too reliable, so they will never be scarce. I have an 80s car like that, where I am 50K into what is still a 10K car - while I love it, there still too many of them around to become valuable.

 

I paid $28k for my FJ Cruiser new in 2011 13+ years ago. I traded it in 2 weeks ago. They put $27k on the sticker for the FJ the next day.

 

Collectability and Barrett's aside, of all the generations of the 4Runner, the 5th Gen lasted the longest. Damn near 15 years of having the bugs worked out and extreme reliability. As can clearly be seen by the mixed welcoming of the more complex 6th Gen, even within a 4Runner forum, the remaining 5th Gens will be sought out. There has already been an uptick in resale value and at some point, the rate at which the 5th Gens disappear from dealer lots will increase.

 

Another factor of the 5th gen story is later on, when all the new '24 models have been snatched up, if anyone has a wreck that totals their ride, there will be no new ones to replace it. If set on a 5th gen replacement, it will be used or nothing at that point.

 

I have already grown to fear this after only 2 weeks of ownership!

 

I am trying to put as many miles as I can on mine, in case I might lose it prematurely, forever.

 

^^^ @java I am jealous. I wish I had a scoopless hood. Maybe I can do a swap.

 

Hahahahahha.
Mine is ORP actually. Swapped hood.

 

They gave you what, $19k?

 

$18k trade, which is what CarMax offered. They will never sell it for $27k, but I was shocked that they even put that on it.

 

You're right they won't get $27k, but it gives them room to negotiate (make the buyer feel like he/she is getting something). They'll probably get close to $23.5k though

 

I did ZERO maintenance or repairs over 13+ years except an alternator and changing my own oil, so my cost to own the FJ on a monthly basis was shockingly low. I am hoping to achieve the same low ownership cost with the new 4Runner. Same engine. Same transmission. Even the same front skid plate I see. Lots of other shared parts as I understand it.

 

You may have the same results, but 'twere me, I'd at least change the oil at some point over 13+ years. Just in case it gets low.

 

LOL. Not what I meant. I change it every 6-7 months or 3,000-4,000 miles. A cautious approach.

 

I’m betting it can’t be worse than the last years of the 4th gen when sales cratered. (among other things going on in the world)

Really would have dug full-time 4WD without a sunroof and standard side airbags.

Went hunting to see what 4th gens were in a wide radius and not much luck. Albeit I’m sure it’s regional, much more 3rd gen Pathfinders in VA but almost none here in TX.