EV sales are still gaining momentum despite what you are hearing

https://electrek.co/2023/11/14/ev-sales-still-gaining-momentum-despite-what-you-are-hearing/#:~:text=EV%20sales%20in%20North%20America,production%2C%E2%80%9D%20Rho%20Motion%20said.

Global EV sales continued building momentum last month despite claims of a cooling market. Sales of electric vehicles grew by double digits in the top markets globally. China, the world’s largest EV market, continues to break sales records despite ending subsidies.

According to market research firm Rho Motion (via Reuters), EV sales grew 29% year-to-date in China in October.

“What’s notable about October’s figures is that EV demand in China continues to reach record highs even though the subsidies were cut,” the company said in a statement.

The growth comes amid China ending an 11-year subsidy for EV buyers last year. Despite this, Rho Motion claims, “2023 is set to be another banner year for China in terms of EV sales.”

Leading Chinese EV maker BYD has continued building momentum this year. The company came within a few thousand of surpassing Tesla as the world’s largest EV maker in the third quarter.

BYD sold a record 151,193 all-electric vehicles in September, for a total of 431,603 in Q3. Meanwhile, Tesla delivered 435,059 EVs in the quarter as it aims to reach its goal of 1.8 million this year.

Like Tesla, BYD has aggressively cut prices this year to drive out a flurry of new competitors and stimulate demand.

Despite the lower prices, BYD posted a record $1.42 billion in third-quarter profits. The company’s gross margins reached 22.12%, its highest in three years.

So, is EV adoption slowing, as many are claiming? The data suggests otherwise…

Is EV sales momentum really slowing?
Despite claims that demand for EVs is cooling, the global electric vehicle market grew 34% year-to-date last month.

The top auto markets had double-digit EV sales growth. Outside of China, EV sales grew 26% in European markets, where subsidies were also cut recently.

Several automakers, including Volkswagen and Mercedes-Benz, have warned that higher interest rates and inflation are turning customers away. Volkswagen’s CFO Arno Antiliz said EV orders were down to 150,000 in Q3, 50% lower than last year.

In response, Volkswagen has cut production of several EV models in Germany, including the ID.4, ID.7, and Audi Q4 e-tron.

Meanwhile, Chinese automakers, including BYD, are expanding in Europe with affordable EV models like the Dolphin hatchback.

EV sales in North America are up 78% so far this year. “The North American market continues to have a strong 2023, with Tesla still taking the lion’s share of demand as legacy automakers temper ambitions of scaling production,” Rho Motion said.

US electric vehicle market
According to recent Cox Automotive data, US EV sales surpassed 300,000 for the first time in Q3. EV sales in the US have now grown for 13 straight quarters.

EV sales accounted for 7.9% of total US auto sales in Q3 with Tesla remaining on top. Tesla accounted for 50% market share, down from 62% in the first quarter. With the highly-awaited Cybertruck launching, momentum is expected to continue.

Q3 2023 US sales Q3 2022 YOY Q3 Market Share
Audi 7,538 3,891 93.7% 2.4%
BMW 13,079 4,365 199.6% 4.2%
BrightDrop 35 – 0% 0%
Cadillac 3,018 36 0% 1%
Chevrolet 15,872 14,709 7.9% 5.1%
Ford 20,962 18,257 14.8% 6.7%
Genesis 1,802 888 102.9% 0.6%
GMC 1,167 411 183.9% 0.4%
Fisker 997 – 0% 0.3%
Hyundai 19,630 5,824 237.1% 6.3%
Jaguar 86 22 290.9% 0%
Kia 9,325 5,583 67% 3%
Lexus 1,394 – 0% 0.4%
Lucid 1,618 654 147.4% 0.5%
Mazda 34 8 325% 0%
Mercedes 10,423 2,717 283.6% 3.3%
Mini 516 1,105 -53.3% 0.2%
Nissan 6,074 1,276 376% 1.9%
Polestar 3,710 2,852 30.1% 1.2%
Porsche 2,050 1,325 54.7% 0.7%
Rivian 15,564 6,884 126.1% 5%
Subaru 2,791 – 0% 0.9%
Tesla 156,621 131,024 19.5% 50%
Toyota 2,827 – 0% 0.9%
VinFast 1,159 – 0% 0.4%
Volvo 4,087 542 654.1% 1.3%
Volkswagen 10,707 6,657 60-.8% 3.4%
US electric vehicles sales Q3 (Source: Cox Automotive)
Despite this, with new EV models hitting the market, Tesla’s share of the market is bound to slip. Overseas competitors including Mercedes-Benz, Volvo, and Hyundai are seeing momentum picking up.

Although Ford (20,962) and GM (20,092) sold more EVs, Mercedes topped the American automakers in sales share. Electric vehicles accounted for 15% of Mercedes total US sales, while GM and Ford were around 3% to 4%.

The growth comes amid delays from top American automakers including Ford and GM on key EV targets.

GM announced it was delaying production of the Equinox, Silverado RST, and GMC Sierra Denalli EVs to protect pricing.

Ford revealed it was pushing back its 600,000 run rate goal until next year. It’s also scapping plans to build one of Europe’s largest EV battery plants with LG Energy Solutions.

Electrek’s Take
So, is EV sales momentum really slowing? Top legacy automakers including Ford, GM, and Volkswagen are warning that the pace of EV adoption is slowing.

Others, including Hyundai and Volvo, expect the momentum to continue with new, advanced models launching next year.

Rivian, an EV startup, raised its production target after crushing Q3 expectations. The company delivered an impressive 15,564 vehicles in the third quarter, more than double last year’s figures.

The fears of slowing demand are over higher interest rates, which could cut into consumer budgets. However, as many EV makers are proving, electric cars are still selling.

Automaker’s that put the early effort in, like Tesla, Rivian, Volvo, and others are seeing the returns.

EV adoption will continue climbing year-over-year despite near-term concerns. The companies doubling down now, will continue reaping the rewards as the industry transitions.

 

Globally aka China

 

From 4runner owners no less

 

Globally AKA China plus Europe plus North America

The top auto markets had double-digit EV sales growth. Outside of China, EV sales grew 26% in European markets, where subsidies were also cut recently. EV sales in North America are up 78% so far this year. EV sales in the US have now grown for 13 straight quarters.

But sure, it's just China.

 

There has been an upsurge of anti-EV propaganda lately. This article counters that with actual DATA.

 

Got it. So propaganda is just data that doesn't agree with your preferred narrative.

I wasn't aware that talking up EV's while owning TSLA was something you could be "busted" for. The website does disclose that some of their writers own Telsa and other EV stocks. Wikepedia states that the founder divested from Tesla in 2020. Maybe he's bought in again since then, who knows.

The data is either right or wrong, if you have data or other info that shows the data they published in this article is false or misleading please share...

 

Don't do it!

 

I dont care what you drive, but I dabbled in EV's for 11 years, so I find these discussions interesting. The report that came out a few weeks ago saying EV sales were tanking was terribly biased. I immediately went to the actual car sales reports for EV's by manufacturer (actual real data, not a news article or opinion) and saw that sales were up incredibly in the US this year across the board.

As far as manufacturers not hitting their self-created targets for EV sales in 2023, you aren't going to sell much of anything with these interest rates and car prices, regarding of EV or gas. Right now a lot of manufacturers have inventory of gassers over 290 days. Thats insane.

 

You never know when somebody is going to say something good! I've considered it a few times, and usually I've been glad that I didn't.

 

EV's are so far from being green anyway, it's ridiculous to base the success of them based off of sales alone. There are so many other factors that would need to be addressed before I could claim EV's are successful and are a suitable replacement for gas powered vehicles. Remember the people that are pushing EV down our throats also tell you nuclear power is evil, among other things, but I won't get into all of that. Once the US takes nuclear seriously, I'll know they're actually serious about 'going green'.

 

So.....?

 

I personally don't care if the sales are growing or shrinking - markets vary over time and I'm not invested in the market.

Given that they are being legislated into existence though, the more sales the better for me personally. I would like to have one for around town and daily driving but refuse to buy a 3rd vehicle and they cannot currently replace a 2nd. With increased sales and demand comes more competition, R&D, and improvements. Maybe in 5-10 years when I decide to replace a 2nd vehicle there will be something available that I'm comfortable with

 

So what you're saying is...

 

I dont think anything we drive is actually green. Or ever will be.

 

Where's the wacky hydrogen guys when we need them?

 

Here's my take: I think the federal credit and federal incentives for OEMs, a lot of companies jumped into EV space. Apart from tesla, no one I know has it vertically integrated, and certainly not making any money selling EVs. Some companies are all in (Ford!) and some are watching others duke it out while providing a *very compelling alternative product* in hybrid (Toyota!).

Ultimately for this to work OEMs have to reach economies of scale and it is not clear to me if they can do it. If I were into active investment, I would short Ford and long tesla and toyota. Going tesla long is risky, because I think Muskie is complete bonkers. But that is what I am seeing, looking into my crystal ball.

I have been wrong before so take it for what its worth