The Inevitable Crash in 4Runner Resale Value

Well, the best new systems already promise a charge to 80% full in only 20-30 min. That's still too long in my book, and 80% isn't satisfactory unless it's 80% of like, 500 miles. And these are a minority of systems within an already small number of charging stations. But it proves that fast charging is already possible and indicates that charging times are likely to continue to improve.

So this problem with EVs will also be resolved at some point. I was using a roughly 10 year time horizon for my "thought experiment" on resale values.

 

Actually, my point has nothing to do with the availability or cost of gas.

I'm just postulating that once good EV SUVs are available, people aren't going to be willing to pay the kinds of prices for used Runners that people would pay today.

I started this thread because I saw so many people lauding the resale value of our trucks. While that is totally well deserved, and a nice perk on top of the main reasons to buy one, I think people should consider how this particular advantage of the Runner is likely to evaporate once its competitors in the used car market include EVs and not just other (and clearly inferior) ICEs.

 

Looks like it might be initially a little heavy, but it's definitely intriguing. The torque should more than make up for the weight in certain situations but it could present problems on certain trails. But it could be a game changer for sure.

 

The simplest response is that the 4Runner is near the peak of ICE technology and EV tech is still very raw. While many of these observations may be true in 12-15 years, none of that exists today, at least not in a capable off road vehicle. If you've got a well-painted 5th gen 4R in 15 years and most manufacturers are selling EV, you'll find collectors and enthusiasts who will pay top dollar for your used vehicle.

 

You lost me with this block of text and lack of paragraphs but I'll like it anyways.

 

@Dillusion No worries, FIFY

 

Sorry I'm not up to speed.

Whats FIFY.

 

"Fixed it for you" lol. Nobody reads my long paragraphs anyway. Its a meme kind of world and Im just too long winded I guess.

 

I’m part of the population that wants nothing to do with electric cars or trucks. I live here in CO, I see the struggles people have with cars in the winter with snow, cold, hills, etc. I have seen many Tesla’s stuck on hills, or pushed to the curb. I don’t have the patience for the battery losing energy due to the cold, I need to get to work.
I actually work in the power industry running plants, the big misconception is batteries are what they are. They won’t be any better 5 years from now. Just my opinion, I’ll love it when the adoption rate lowers fuel prices.

 

I spent good money on my 4Runner so I can give it to my oldest when he turns 16. He’s 5 years old.
I also hate shopping for new anything, cars and trucks included. I have always bought used and drove it into the ground. Plan to do the same with my current vehicle.

 

Resale heh.....

 

I live in Colorado too, and I see about as many Teslas as 4Runners on the road these days (which is a lot of both). I don’t believe I’ve ever seen a Tesla stuck on a hill or on the side of the road. I don’t have any particular feelings about Teslas, other than that they’re intriguing and that, faced with needing a new daily driver this month, I chose a 4Runner not a Tesla. But the image of Teslas dropping like flies when it’s cold out doesn’t fit my observations.

 

Further, it seems we're on the cusp of a major development in batter tech -- solid state. It's already proven in the lab and initial testing, and some manufactures are betting $billions on it now. So clearly their engineers see a lot of promise. These new batteries hold a lot more energy in a smaller and lighter package, quicker charging times, have far less risk of combustion (not that current batteries are bad in comparison to ICE vehicles) and may not need the precious metals now being used. Cold temps may still reduce range, but the more range you start with the less of a problem that is. Besides, ICE range suffers in the cold too.

Great EVs are coming. Long ranges and fast charging times are coming. And if a manufacturer is smart enough to combine that tech with a tough BOF design like the current 4R, then the current 4R becomes basically obsolete. That was the point of my thread. It's not going to have high resale in 10-15 years, cause no ICE vehicles (except collectibles) will be attractive then. I bought mine assuming it will be the last new ICE I buy.

 

I like Teslas a lot, I would love to be able to get a brand new Cybertruck with at least 2 motors.
But for now, at least in Canada, it still is prohibitively expensive, even for a model 3. (~80kcad with self driving)
Add the charging times, the limited network of chargers vs gas stations, and the fact that Tesla Mobile tech needs to come to my house to fix it whenever they can....it's a no in my books.
Plus, I dont like the idea of my car sending all my data to Tesla, it is only a matter of time till they go hand in hand with the insurance companies to find a why to charge me more. Ontario is disgusting with insurance rates. They can turn my car off any time they want.
Why I dislike Tesla? They want to make car ownership a thing of the past. You will only rent a Tesla and they own it all.

 

I’m buying mine with the same assumption. Although five years ago, when I was contemplating what vehicle to buy in 2020ish, I was sure it would be an EV. Even as recently as a couple years ago I felt that way. But as of today, they’re not there yet, at least for me. We’ll see what the future holds. I assume 4Rs will still hold their value better relative to other ICE vehicles. What that means to anyone’s bottom line, pretty tough to predict.

 

These concerns are completely valid. But they aren't inherent to electric vehicles. Some, like the lack of dealer service networks, are specific to Tesla. This is why I think the big car makers will ultimately overtake Tesla in the EV space and relegate it to has-been status.

The concern about data and the ability to turn off your car remotely etc is equally true of most modern ICE vehicles. Any car with an internet connection is vulnerable to manipulation by either hackers, the manufacturer or a government -- a big problem IMO. But again, this problem is not specific to EVs.

 

If I'm going to go EV, I want to buy the vehicle and rent/lease the battery.

 

Resale value is one thing, another BIG thing for me is reliability. By the OPs account, all ICE cars will have poor resale value. Maybe in 15 years, yes, but there will be a market than will not die in my lifetime.
I am still curious to see how they will solve the common household grid problem, I was reading that if we replace like 50% of the cars with EVs, the grid cant handle the load.

PS: remember back in 2003? With that 3 days blackout on the east coast? This happening now and all the a#$holes and their ICE cars driving around like the own that road....
Some will say you cant pay for gas... yes, I can, cash or old fashion credit card manual press. Good luck charging with that generator.

 

Just recently we had an extended weather related power outage in my region and I remember walking my dog past all the houses of my neighbors with Teslas sitting in the driveway. That made me laugh.

I imagine there were charging stations in the area that had backup power supplies or were restored quickly, but getting a charge wouldn't have been nearly as sure a thing as getting gas. Definitely, our grid needs to be better regardless of EVs. Our whole way of life could be turned upside down by a cyber attack or EMP etc. There are quite plausible scenarios where major parts of the country could be without power for weeks or months -- maybe even many months. It's a scandal that we've left ourselves so vulnerable.

Strengthening the grid should be a national security priority along with diversifying and greening energy supply. Another part of the solution is a move to more local generation combined with passive heating and cooling tech for structures. There are already homes and businesses that are off grid and/or need much less energy than is typical. Solar combined with onsite battery storage is already happening. There are homeowners now who pay next to nothing for electricity and make signif $ selling surplus back to the utilities. It'll take ages before that sort of thing is common (and lord knows developers are a powerful lobby that resist building anything they're not used to), but it'll be pretty cool when it is.

Anyway, part of my point in buying the 4R was to hedge my bets. I see keeping it far longer than I've kept any other vehicle. I want to have a super reliable and versatile ICE on hand as we transition to EV. My expectation is that an EV will be my daily driver in 5-10 years, but I'll still have the 4R for when and if it's needed. Even if it's just for dirty work I don't want to subject my DD to.

 

ICEs will only lose resale value if the fuel and/or repair infrastructure fails the ease of using one. Hybrid is a far superior platform than EV anyway, although few seem to be talking about this as a likely future.

 

As the OP, I confess to some regret about the title I gave to this thread. I wanted to get people talking -- mission accomplished. But my point was really less about resale value (a fairly minor issue) and more about the ultimate superiority of EV. Electric motor propulsion is just so inherently superior to ICE in almost every way. And in the couple ways it isn't now (range plus charging speed and availability) it will be eventually. Really that was my point.

We love our 4Rs and for good reason, but we're on the cusp of a revolution that will leave them as antiquated as hand-crank starters, 4-wheel drum brakes and tires with inner tubes.

 

Definitely a good post to get the conversation going, that being said I own a EV Audi and just bought a brand new 2021 4Runner: Not once did I think about my new 4Runner being obsolete. Ask me in 4 years how my EV has done from a resale with new technology battery wise coming out monthly/yearly. My assumption is we all love our 4runners so just keep on enjoying each day!

 

Come to the Springs, and walk down Woodmen road, east of Union. It becomes a car parking lot. I have in fact seen stuck Teslas. I will start taking photos of them from now on.

 

Not talking about California, the actual grid comprising of generation, transmission, and distribution is a very well maintained, planned (for many years out), and very reliable. All utilities are required to project future system loading. They plan accordingly and construct more transmission lines, more sub stations, which feed more distribution circuits. The biggest development in the future will more than likely be demand metering, and on/off peak electric charging.

The biggest reliability problem in the near future is the addition of so much solar and wind generation. The closing of base load coal power plants has been a negative development towards reliable base load. When a huge wind or solar project is proposed, the same amount of fossil fuel power generation is built. I work at such a facility that has grown with more gas turbine generators, for at the time, major wind projects. Solar and wind 20 years from now will turn into an economic, and environmental disaster. I’m just waiting for that time to come and the pendulum to swing the other way, and we start building coal plants again for reliable, cheap base load power.

 

THe infrastructure to charge cars in a manner equivalent to a gas station is decades away.
The US needs whole scale shift away from fossil fuels for power generation. We need small scale local nuclear reactors in every town to generate the electrons needed for a society of electric cars buzzing about.
Gasoline is significantly more energy-dense than current battery tech. Batteries need a paradigm shift in technology before they work for the general populus.

 

Huh? Why such a massive shift when the average person drives less than 30 miles per day? Plugging in over night (when grid draw is least) would work for the majority of drivers.

And battery tech will surely improve like all technology. Just look at what Toyota is doing with solid state.

 

With a late 4runner and a Tesla in our stable, I will say that outside of your routine commute to work or trip around town, the EV is inconvenient on any long road-trip. Traveling across states requires some planning; no trip is worth the range anxiety that the Tesla brings. Even if you follow the supercharger network, it can usually be a toss-up (broken chargers, crowded, sitting around, inconvenient detours etc...)

Before I have the Tesla-fanboys hunt me down, I will say that it’s one of the most responsive and exhilarating cars I’ve ever driven. The future is electric and the 4runner will probably be the last ICE vehicle I own.

With that said, the infrastructure is not there yet, at least not in California. I can’t see an electric SUV doing what a 4runner does at this price of entry, at least not for awhile. In 20 years time, maybe high tech ICE vehicles (MB, BMW etc...) will be obsolete while the “dinosaurs” with their more reliable and simple tech will be more desirable. Just a guess.

 

The infrastructure for EV is not set up for apartment dwellers where I live. Single family homes or town homes no problem. But a big apartment complex? Hard to do right now and expensive. Rental rates are really high as it is. ICE may be around for a few more years.

 

this is an important point that is being made. While In major metro areas EV is easy, outside of that the infrastructure won’t be viable for a long time because there’s no money in it.