The Inevitable Crash in 4Runner Resale Value

I posted the following observations in reply to another topic, but think it deserves it's own thread and a separate discussion:
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The threat to the long term desirability and value of our trucks is EV. In an ICE world, the 4Runner has a combination of attributes that's very hard to match. And there's no reason to expect any car maker to build a new ICE vehicle that does match it.

But as EV technology improves over the next several years, there's gonna be a real question as to why someone would spend significant money on a used 4Runner.

It won't be for durability, reliability or mechanical simplicity. EVs should have a significant edge there.

It won't be for AWD and off-road ability, because that too can be done better by EVs. For example, having a motor at each axle or even at each wheel. And no need for exhausts, bulky transmissions and gas tanks that compromise ground clearance. An EV can have a virtually flat underbody that functions as one truck-length skid plate.

It won't be for cargo or passenger capacity, because EVs allow more flexibility in vehicle design. EVs allow for flat floors and frunks in addition to trunks or hatches.

It won't be for range. At the rate of progress we're seeing now, in 5 or 10 years EVs might be getting 500-plus miles.

The prevalence and speed of fueling stations might still favor ICE several years from now, but that's offset to some extent for those with the ability to plug in at home. It may also be offset by advances in solar charging, which appears ready to make a big leap thanks to nano material technology.

So at some point the 4Runner will be desirable only to those who can't afford a new or near-new EV. And that means lower resale values for the 4Runner.

The only thing that can realistically prevent this eventuality would be the failure of car makers to offer EV SUVs with the ruggedness and capabilities of the 4Runner. For example, if they all decided that consumers only wanted Priuses and namby-pamby crossovers. But why would they? They would not. Mercedes is already working on an EV G Wagon. Jeep will surely make an EV Wrangler. Consumers will have a number of rugged and highly capable EV off roaders to choose from.

As the owner of a 2020 4Runner that stickered for almost 50K, I of course am not thrilled about this from a financial perspective. But I think it's inevitable that 10 years from now my Runner will be a cool and unstoppable old ICE truck with a lot of fond memories and continued utility -- but very little resale value.

 

Banking on any resale value on any vehicle is retarded.

They depreciate the most out of anything.

I buy new vehicles just because I want to and don't worry one bit what I will get out of it when I sell. The longest I've owned a vehicle is 5 years now with my Wifes Highlander. I usually get bored and switch so I've thrown tons of money down the drain.

 

While I don’t disagree with your thought process I do disagree with the timeline. I don’t think the technology is fully matured enough to support a 10 year timeline. Tesla is a prime example of that with the shortcomings out of their plants currently. Also the technology for the recharging stations is still learning and will require several more years before we see a main stream instant on the go charging solution. I would venture to put the timeline more in the 20-30year range seeing a major explosion of information technology around the 21-25 year mark.

 

What would be a "crash" in 4Runner resale? 60% after 5 years vs 65%?

 

Until there’s infrastructure that’ll support that amount of EV’s in the US, I don’t think our value will plummet anytime soon.

 

No one can predict the future. So, everyone is entitled to their opinion and it will be valid. I’m one of those who can’t wait for the Cybertruck to come out. I’m in the 33,000 group for preorders. Anyone who thinks EV technology needs 25 or 30 more years to mature should try to be a little more worldly. Travel to Norway. Travel in Europe. Tesla’s are everywhere, and you can easily commute between major centres and countries in them. Tesla has their own charging centres and they work well, from what I understand. I have two family members in Texas and in Denmark who own Tesla’s, and they love them. Their maintenance costs are near zero, and fuel costs are zero. Ok, you pay a little for hydro. Big deal, in Texas the hydro comes from a Tesla wall that is sold back to the grid. They make money on their electricity bill. Look, I get it, ICE vehicles are a 19th century technology that some of us love. I’m not worried about my 4 Runner’s value, because I’ll just keep it. I’ll register it as an historic vehicle and drive it in the local parade.

 

I highly doubt the 4Runner will even see it's value crash. First gens in good condition can be sold for 10K plus. 2nd Gens are fast approaching that too as will 3rd and 4th eventually. I highly doubt you will ever see 4Runners value go down to where they are cheap to buy.

 

Time may prove you correct. But the assumption rests on the current set of options for used car buyers. Today, almost nothing surpasses the 4Runner in reliability and capability. You can get more life and utility out of a 100,000 mile 4Runner than you can out of most new cars for the same price.

But all that changes once EVs are ubiquitous. By then, EVs will be so much more appealing than an ICE 4Runner. When that happens the market for our trucks just won't be the same. Because then, the comparison that shoppers will be making won't be between a used 4Runner and another used ICE, except at the very low end of the market. It will be between the 4Runner and a new or used EV.

I'm thinking for example of the guy who recently sold his for 33K, after having bought it a few years ago for 33.5K. Or the guy who recently bought a 100,000-plus mile 4Runner for 23K. Those kinds of stories are gonna disappear. Cause if you have 23 or 33K to spend, you're gonna buy EV instead.

 

Just curious if the range figures are including an AC system on full blast in 95* Florida heat. The automakers used to fib a lot about their mileage figures for years. Yea it gets 25 mpg doing 0-60 in a mile and a half on flat ground. Obviously there are great gas sippers now but in the past it was a joke.
If Tesla and the EV companies that follow are smart they won't shirk on these figures going forward.
I also advise everyone start looking into investing in solar panels to charge their EV. Even as cheap as it is over gasoline right now, that could change and having a Solar powered back up battery bank at your house would just be a wise investment, for charging at minimal cost and still having the ability to charge in case of grid failure.
As far as the value of the T4R? If gas is still readily available? It could still draw some nostalgia value. But, no selling a 4Runner for 500 less than you paid three years later? Way doubtful. Unless the Cybertruck is a bust off road....JK @Oldtoyotaguy. Is it going to have 4x4 options? Edit: Just looked it up. I actually haven't even given it much research, because I can't afford it, but a 3 motor AWD that can tow 14K with a 500 mile range? Lofty goals indeed.

 

Just a guess? EV will be new, expensive and unproven. We should be able to see resale for quite awhile and if anything ICE collectors will pay top dollar for the long lasting ICE vehicle & most collectors have cash or are willing to go into debt to catch a gem

 

Lithium or lack there of will be the biggest road block for mainstream ev imo. Still plenty of fossil fuel to last all our lifetimes. If they do make a viable electric 4runner in my lifetime ill probably buy it but keep my current one as well

 

doesn't matter...something better comes along, I'll buy it. But for now (and the near future at least) I love my 4Runner. She's purty.

 

This statement is so much me.

 

Valid point but i didn't buy to sell it. I'll keep it until I cant get in it

 

Interested in feedback (since I've only recently returned to 4Runners), how many of you bought your 4Runner primarily because of resale?

Understand EV's meet the needs of many in metropolitan areas (family in San Francisco and Atlanta both own them). But there will be a segment of the population that they won't without significant advances.

I live in a rural community, drive 15/18,000 miles annually. Work truck must tow 10,000 lbs. minimum. Play SUV has to tow boat 50/100 miles and teardrop to Colorado/Arizona/Wyoming/Utah (800 - 1400 miles one way).

Without significant advances in travel distance per charge/recharge times (biggest obstacle in my case)/and tow capability (do any currently have tow capabilities of any weight?), they won't be a practical alternative.

The day will come when technology finds the solution to all those obstacles. The problem will then be with me, I'm firmly an analog guy in a rapidly advancing digital world. Grew up when being a competent shade-tree mechanic was a badge of honor, honed decent skills over more decades than I care to count. Zero clues on where to begin if propulsion issues with 4 independent electric motors. Unfortunately, don't have the interest to learn.

I came back to 4Runners because of the quality/comfort/capabilities/styling right now, today. Will deal with the fallout of my choice/resale when it's time to cross that bridge.

 

Yeah I don’t know about that, mine is 30 years old and honestly I never thought about value when I got this 4Runner. It’s nuts to me how many people approach me wanting to buy my rig. Recently I had a guy chase me down, offered me $6500 Cash, it actually went to $7500 and a ride home....LOL. I think they’ll be around and do just fine. I have no intentions on selling as my Grandson gets mine when I’m gone, then he can do what he wants.

 

Maybe, but the range is not the biggest thing they need to overcome. 500 mile range would be fantastic. Waiting hours for it to recharge would not. The battery technology isn't there yet. I would expect this crash to affect the next generation of 4runners more.

Ding, ding, ding! I agree 100%!

Resale value was exactly 0% of my reason for buying a 4runner. Although, it is what made me decide to buy new.

I bought this thing for me. I intend to keep it until the government makes us all buy self driving Priuses.

 

Its like an addiction to get a new vehicle I can't help it.

 

Based on the electricity supply in California, I'm not buying an EV while still living in this shithole state. With rolling power outages now, what happens when a whole bunch of greenhorns plug in there cars all at once?

 

I would have to say that most people are at least cognizant of the strong resale value of 4Runners, although they won’t say that’s why they bought it.

 

For piece of mind and security in case of an unrest situation, I think one should own both an EV and ICE - that’s my plan at least

 

Post deleted due to poor structure.

 

Gas isnt going away for a very long time in the automotive world. Even longer in a world that needs reliable remote access. These will be around in 20-30 years no problem. EV's will rule the road and all the gas mazda 3s and camrys, civics, etc... will be gone but niche markets these trucks offer will still be around. Just like muscle cars. IMHO

 

I would bet very few.

I'm sure it's a factor in many people's decision, but I doubt it's the primary reason for many.

Agreed. Although, I won't say that's why I bought it because it isn't why I bought it.

I mentioned earlier that it is the reason I bought new. It didn't make sense to spend $35K on a used vehicle that I could buy new for $40K.

 

It's just a tasty, extra added bonus...

 

The Cybertruck has a lot of clearance and is 4x4 in the trimotor version. Probably the best wade depth of any 4X4. Quieter and simpler in terms of mechanical components. Maybe more high tech in terms of digital stuff. Definitely an off road vehicle stock right out of the box. No mods necessary. Haha.

 

I am planning on purchasing an EV conversion kit for my 2020 4Runner TRD OR when its ICE bites the dust in about 2045. It should then be good to go another 25 years as an EV before the mini-nuclear reactor conversion kits are available.

 

While I absolutely agree with you on the benefits of EV vs ICE vehicles, and their impact on the resale value of the majority of used ICE vehicles. I disagree with you on the effect on the 4R resale, and similar niche vehicles.

There will still be a relatively large demographic of people who still need / want an ICE vehicle. For those people, their primary needs will be reliability, simplicity, and capability. Those are all the areas where the 4R is unquestionably dominant.

That market will stay strong for a very long time, and that demographic of people will gladly pay a premium for it.

 

But this won't happen until maybe 20 to 30 years down the road when oil eventually runs out and that and gas gets very expensive. I will probably be long dead by then.

 

I'm currently pining over getting a Tundra. The struggle is real.